Journal of Official Statistics, Vol.7, No.3, 1991. pp. 295–310
A Population Forecast as a Database: Implementing the Stochastic Propagation of Error
Juha M. Alho and Bruce D. Spencer
Abstract:We propose implementing population forecasts as databases. This has two advantages. First, users can retrieve custom forecasts to suit their particular needs. Second, the forecasts can include probabilistic prediction intervals that allow the user to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. A major contribution of the paper is the derivation of propagation of error formulas that are needed to calculate the probabilistic intervals. A computer program implementing a simple version of a stochastic population forecast is described.
Keywords:Databases; population projections; propagation of error; stochastic methods; uncertainty.
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