Journal of Official Statistics, Vol.7, No.1, 1991. pp. 7–24
Sources of Uncertainty in Modeling Social Statistics: An Inventory
Clifford C. Clogg and Aref N. Dajani
Abstract:We describe the major sources of uncertainty in modeling social statistics. A more comprehensive definition of a statistical model is developed for this setting. The components of the modeling process enumerated here alert both the analyst and the consumer to sources of uncertainty that might not be measured well by conventional measures of precision (standard errors) or goodness-of-fit summaries. We also try to assess how well some of our supermodels convey the true uncertainty in our conclusions.
Keywords:Uncertainty; supermodels; social survey; complex samples; computer revolution; sampling frame.
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