Journal of Official Statistics, Vol.3, No.3, 1987. pp. 223233

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Seasonal Adjustment of the Money Stock in the United States

The monetary aggregates in the United States are seasonally adjusted using X-11-ARIMA for monthly series and a model-based procedure for weekly series. Where monthly and weekly versions of the same series are published, a balancing procedure ensures that the monthly and weekly factors are consistent. Before annual publication, usually in February, seasonal adjustments are carefully reviewed by Federal Reserve analysts familiar with money stock data. Attempts are made, however, to incorporate all relevant information about the series into the forecasting models (or into prior adjustments to the data), thereby limiting subjective elements in the seasonal factors. There remain several unanswered questions concerning seasonal adjustment of the money stock.

Seasonal adjustment; money stock; time series; U.S. Federal Reserve; Census X-11; X-11-ARIMA.

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