Journal of Official Statistics, Vol.24, No.4, 2008. pp. 612–622
Seasonality in Investment Plans and Their Revisions
Abstract:This article deals with application of seasonal adjustment methods to short-term forecasting of investments in the Business Enterprise sector. The approach is to forecast the revisions, i.e., the differences between the preliminary statistics based largely on planned investments, and the final ones. The magnitude of the revisions by the enterprises of planned quarterly investments depends not only on their economic activity and the economic situation, but also on timing of the investment surveys. These factors result in seasonal effects in revisions. We correct for the seasonality in revisions, so that the preliminary investment figures will not have to be substantially and systematically revised when the final figures arrive.
Keywords:Official statistics, seasonality, forecasting, revisions
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