Journal of Official Statistics, Vol.23, No.2, 2007. pp. 239–251
Predicting Natural Gas Production in Texas: An Application of Nonparametric Reporting Lag Distribution Estimation
Crystal D. Linkletter, Randy R. Sitter
Abstract:There exists a delay between the production of natural gas by states in the U.S. and the reporting of that production. As a result, the true volume of natural gas produced in a given month is not known until a year or more after production. It is important to have earlier and more accurate production estimates. In this article we apply nonparametric reporting-lag-distribution estimation originally developed to analyze epidemiological, insurance, and product warranty data, and demonstrate its simplicity and effectiveness in producing better early estimates of natural gas production in Texas.
Keywords:AIDS, prediction intervals, right-truncated data, survey sampling
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