Journal of Official Statistics, Vol.16, No.4, 2000. pp. 363378

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On Variance Estimation for Measures of Change When Samples are Coordinated by the Use of Permanent Random Numbers


A common objective in business surveys is to compare two estimates and of the same characteristic taken on two occasions, e.g., the level of production the same month in two consecutive years, and to judge whether the observed change is statistically significant or merely subject to random variation.
Business surveys often use samples at separate occasions that are positively coordinated, i.e., overlapping, in order to increase the precision in estimates of change over time. Such sample coordination will make and become correlated. Some systems used for sample coordination rely on Permanent Random Numbers (PRNs). However, the use of PRNs brings an additional component of randomness to the rotation pattern as compared to ordinary panel rotation. This makes the estimation of the correlation more difficult.
The SAMU system which is used by Statistics Sweden for sample coordination of business surveys is such a system. The purpose of the present paper is to show how to estimate the variance for measures of change such as or when and are estimated from two separate SAMU samples.

Survey sampling; variance estimation; estimates of change; panel designs; permanent random numbers.

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